Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
